At this instant, the Atlanta Braves own a 54-44 record, trail the NL East-leading Washington Nationals by 5 games and have a 1.5 game lead on the St. Louis Cardinals for the second wild card spot in the NL. For a team that ranks 14th in the NL in starters' ERA (4.31), starters' IP (5.79 IP/start), in strikeouts (431 or 6.91 K/9IP) and 2nd highest in walks issued (209 or 3.35 BB/9IP), that's not bad at all. However, the current pitching staff won't get the Braves to the playoffs.
Until Brandon Beachy's injury back in June, I wasn't particularly worried. Yes the Braves were trotting out some combination of Mike Minor/Randall Delgado/Jair Jurrjens for two out of every five games, but Fredi Gonzalez's crew was getting by with their performances.
But as the dog days of summer have dragged along, I have realized that we need to make an attempt at adding an arm. And while Ben Sheets has fought back from what many thought was the end of his career to throw 12 scoreless innings in his first two starts for ATL, I do not believe that he is the long-term solution. (I would love for that previous statement to be completely disproven.)
It is no secret that the Braves have been actively inquiring about a middle to top-of-the-rotation arm for quite some time now. And while Ryan Dempster may not have known that he was being pursued by the Braves, all of ATL did (http://twitter.com/RyanDempsterFDN/status/227485158197043200).
Once the Dempster deal fell through, I felt relieved. I never have been a fan of the two-month rental program that is common in the MLB. Instead, I am a much bigger fan of trading for a player who you can control through the following season (i.e. Michael Bourn and Alex Gonzalez) than simply a short playoff chase.
That being said, if the Braves were one player away from being a serious title threat, I would not be opposed to a rental. This team, however, is more than one player away. Two of our starting pitching slots are question marks (not including Sheets) and our offensive production among SS for the season is .241/.269/.333 with 4 HR and 32 RBI. And if not for Andrelton's excellent play in 33 games before breaking his pinky finger, those numbers would be .217/.238/.280. Throw in a less successful bullpen and there are significant gaps to be filled.
So who are some players I'd like to see the Braves go after? I've composed a five-player list that doesn't include the names Zach Greinke (the price would be too high; the Brewers want two or three top prospects, including Julio Teheran. The Braves should wait and go after Greinke this offseason in free agency), James Shields or Ryan Dempster. Instead, all of these players are free agents after the 2013 season and have a chance at helping the franchise over both the short-term and the long-term. From most likely to least likely, they are:
1. Matt Garza, Chicago Cubs
Free Agent after 2013 Season (28 Years Old)
2012 Stats: 5-7, 3.91 ERA, 96 K's (8.37 K/9), 1.18 WHIP
Garza is much better than his 5-7 win-loss record; remember, he is pitching for a team that has scored the fewest runs in the major leagues. This year, he has shown a significant improvement in his control as he is walking a career low 2.8 batters per 9 innings. He has made five postseason starts during his career (that's more than every Braves starter except for Tim Hudson) and has done well in them; he is 2-1 with a 3.48 ERA.
Garza's price in a trade would be similar to the haul that the Braves offered the Cubs for Ryan Dempster. They would likely have to part with Randall Delgado and a couple of lower level prospects, which is not too high of a price for pitcher of Garza's caliber.
Garza's price in a trade would be similar to the haul that the Braves offered the Cubs for Ryan Dempster. They would likely have to part with Randall Delgado and a couple of lower level prospects, which is not too high of a price for pitcher of Garza's caliber.
2. Jason Vargas, Seattle Mariners
Free Agent after 2013 Season (29 Years Old)
2012 Stats: 11-7, 3.76 ERA, 96 K's (5.92 K/9), 1.16 WHIP
Vargas is one of the hottest pitchers in the league. His stats are much better when he pitches in his cavernous home ballpark, but he has performed everywhere as of late. In his last six starts, three of which came on the road, he is 4-0 with a 1.85 ERA. Vargas' only real red flag is the fact that he has allowed 25 HR (1.5/9IP) on the season. Five of those came in a June game at Arizona in which he allowed 10 ER in 4.1 IP. Without that start, he would have a 3.24 ERA on the season.
The price for Vargas is believed to be lower than the asking price for Garza, so the Braves could possibly get away with dealing only prospects and hold on to Delgado. There is no indication that Vargas is on the Braves' radar, but I believe he would be a good fit in Atlanta.
3. Jeff Karstens, Pittsburgh Pirates
Free Agent after 2013 Season (29 Years Old)
2012 Stats: 3-2, 3.52 ERA, 31 K's (6.06 K/9), 1.17 WHIP (Only made 8 starts due to shoulder inflammation)
The Pirates are shopping a starting pitcher? That doesn't make sense, does it? Well with the recent acquisition of Wandy Rodriguez from the Astros, the Pirates now have six starting pitchers. They are rumored to be shopping either Karstens or Kevin Correia in order to get a bat. Now I'm not so sure that Juan Francisco or Eric Hinske would be the bat that the Pirates are looking for, but it's about all that the Braves would be able to give up.
Now it is very unlikely that the Pirates deal Karstens for one of these players, but it's worth a shot, isn't it?
4. Edinson Volquez, San Diego Padres
Free Agent after 2013 Season (29 Years Old)
2012 Stats: 6-7, 3.30 ERA, 117 K's (8.22 K/9), 1.32 WHIP, 73 BB (5.13 BB/9)
It is rumored that the Padres are planning on keeping the somewhat inconsistent Volquez despite the interest from teams around the league. Therefore, the Braves would really have to overpay for a pitcher that is walking over 5 batters per 9 innings; that doesn't sound like a good plan. The package would likely have to include Braves top prospect Julio Teheran and another one or two prospect. While Teheran is not exactly tearing up AAA right now (6-5, 5.34 ERA with a .290 BAA), the Braves shouldn't give up on him unless they are getting a bona fide top of the line starter (see number five on this list).
5. Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins
Free Agent after 2013 Season
2012 Stats: 6-7, 4.14 ERA, 105 K's (7.93 K/9), 1.34 WHIP
The Marlins' front office has denied that they are giving up on the current roster and trading all of their best players. I won't believe them until Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes and Giancarlo (The Artist Formerly Known as Mike) Stanton are all wearing a Marlins uniform on August 1. The Marlins have made it clear that Johnson is not on the trading block; yet he also is not untouchable. Zak Schmoll of Bleacher Report has phrased the Marlins' asking price as "Teixeira-like," which should sound unsettling to Braves fans.
Should the Braves offer another package like they did to the Rangers for Mark Teixeira (which I will recall in my next post)? No way. But I think they should call the Marlins, offer to send them Teheran, SS/3B Edward Salcedo (Braves' #6 prospect accoding to BaseballAmerica.com) to replace Hanley Ramirez and RHP Zeke Spruill (Braves' #8 prospect according to BaseballAmerica.com) and see what happens. There's no harm in trying, is there?
What will the Braves decide? We'll find out in four days, four hours and 26 minutes.
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